From kragen@dnaco.net Sun Aug 9 23:42:03 1998 Date: Sun, 9 Aug 1998 23:42:01 -0400 (EDT) From: Kragen To: Cameron Barrett cc: rebecalist@bossanova.com Subject: Re: [rebecalist] the truth behind the amazon buying spree In-Reply-To: Message-ID: MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII X-Keywords: X-UID: 1160 Status: O X-Status: On Sun, 9 Aug 1998, Cameron Barrett wrote: > Ecommerce is the foundation of the next Internet. What started as a > research/communication tool for professors and scientists, has evolved into > a consumer service. You know, I really don't believe this. There are still lots more people using email than using the Web. Most people who use the Web use it for a lot more than commerce, too. I really don't think ecommerce is going to do much to change the world. It's a slightly more convenient and exciting variety of the mail-order catalog, pioneered by Sears, Roebuck & Co., circa 1890. Obviously a lot of people stand to make a lot of money. And hey -- it may be a tremendous boon for artists and craftspeople, who suddenly have a much bigger market than they could have had before. I don't think it's going to be the foundation of anything, though, let alone the next Internet. Communication between people who know each other is the killer app of the current Internet, and it will be the foundation of the next Internet. Political revolution and a transparent society will be the result. One of the things the Pentagon worries about is little bits of almost-classified information. They're always a little concerned that if people who know classified information talk about things related to it that aren't classified, a savvy intelligence agency could piece together a picture of the classified information. That's been impractical in the past, for most of us. But in the near future, that kind of information will rapidly make the rounds among conspiracy buffs and wannabe spies, and the conclusions will be anonymously published -- including citations to open-source proof, unlike past "leaks" like Nicky Hager. Classified secrets will be things of the past. I think a lot of spectacular things are going to happen in the next few years because of the Internet. I think ecommerce will be a minor detail (although, of course, it will remain significant on Wall Street.) Kragen